The Knuckle Curve

Just some thoughts on some of the pitchers I was watching on a busy Friday night of baseball.

Clay Buchholz (Boston Red Sox v. New York Yankees) 6 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 3 K

It’s easy to see why he’s such a highly touted prospect and how he’s already got a Major League no-hitter on his resume. His fastball looked to be in the low to mid 90’s for most of his six innings of work which probably seem like 100+ after his changeup and curveball were coming in right around 80 mph. The curveball was buckling some knees and making some Yankees hitters look completely foolish. While he did get a bit wild in the fifth inning - walking Hideki Matsui and Jorge Posada before allowing a run scoring double from (red hot) Jose Molina -he was excellent throughout the night and showed more of what Red Sox fans have to look forward to.

Manny Parra (Milwaukee Brewers v. New York Mets) 4 IP, 6 H, 3 ER, 1 BB, 4 K

I didn’t see as much of this one but I watched a couple innings from Parra so I could see what this youngster is all about. The first word that came to mind after watching him throw one pitch was “smooth”. He looked really easy getting the ball to the plate, reminding me of Andy Pettitte at times. I didn’t see any of the knee-buckling off-speed stuff that Buchholz was tossing but he did a nice job against a tough Mets lineup. As with most rookies, he would benefit from increasing the percentage of strikes thrown as he was at about 60% (43 of 72) last night.

Chien-Ming Wang (New York Yankees v. Boston Red Sox) 9IP, 2 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 3 K

It’s tough to fault a pitcher who just threw a complete game two-hitter against a tough Red Sox lineup, but I saw an alarming number of fly balls during Wang’s performance. He started off the first inning by fly ball outs from Coco Crisp and Dustin Pedroia (and then striking out David Ortiz) which is when I first said to myself “he’s not getting his sinker down enough”. Of course, he made it work well enough to complete the game on only 93 pitches so what do I know?

Barry Zito (San Francisco Giants v. St. Louis Cardinals) 6 IP, 7 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 2 K

Zito’s going to be haunted by his massive contract until it expires because there just seems to be no possible way he’s ever going to regain the Cy Young form that ended up earning him that contract in the first place. He’s trying to transform himself into a “crafty lefty” a la Jaime Moyer because his fastball just isn’t overpowering enough at this point. He showed through most of Friday night’s game that he is indeed making this transition and was quite effective against all Cardinals not named Pujols. I don’t expect to see many more lines like he had last night and he’ll struggle to get to 10 wins for the eighth straight season with the anemic Giants offense supplying minimal run support.

It seems that every year I find myself on the road for work during the first week of the baseball season. Sometimes domestic travel, sometimes abroad (like this year). Hey, I don’t expect sympathy seeing as I just got to spend 4 ½ days in Florence soaking in the gorgeous history of Italy (and working hard, of course) , but it could have been timed better since I absolutely live for the early part of the season. I always look forward to the first few weeks so we can see how the teams will get out of the gate. Will last year’s surprise team hold up and become a legitimate contender for another year? Will the powerhouse teams meet the media’s expectations and get out of the gate by opening an early lead in the standings? How will those players who impressed in the spring carry over into the real action?

So far, after about five games per team, we haven’t gotten many answers but the three things that jump out at me at this point are the fact that the Rays are atop the AL East (tied with Baltimore), the performance of potential phenom Johnny Cueto of Cincinnati and the 0-5 record of the supposedly World Series bound Detroit Tigers.

The Rays are the darlings of the league this year with many predicting a breakthrough for the perennially losing franchise and through four games (an exceptionally small sample size to be sure) they’re showing what they’re capable of. If their starting pitching continues to perform at this level (and presumably the return of Scott Kazmir in early May will only improve the situation) there’s no reason they can’t be in the middle of the Wild Card race come August and September.

As for Cueto, who knows what his major league debut will turn into? He dominated a good Arizona lineup for seven innings, striking out 10 batters, to show that his strong spring performance was no fluke. According to scouts across the baseball world, he’s got the stuff to continue succeeding at this level, but you never know with rookies. It’s good to see him get out of the gate like this but I expect a typical bumpy first season for him like most rookie pitchers.

And what’s up with Detroit? With that lineup they should be able to overcome the shortcomings of their bullpen, but so far that hasn’t been the case. Scoring only 13 runs in five games just isn’t getting it done. And with Miguel Cabrera and Gary Sheffield already banged up, it’s possible that this team could be chasing Cleveland for the rest of the season. It should be a great race throughout the summer and I’m really looking forward to it! Of course, when I head to Stockholm in mid-May I will again be relying on internet cafes and CNN International for my baseball fix!

Don’t the Houston Astros have a publicity department to make sure people don’t find out about things like this?

“KISSIMMEE, Fla. — Second baseman Kazuo Matsui will undergo surgery Monday morning at the Methodist Hospital in Houston to repair an anal fissure, the Astros announced Friday evening.

Dr. Eric Haas will perform the procedure. The estimated recovery time is two weeks.

Matsui has not played a spring game in one week, while dealing with symptoms originally diagnosed as hemorrhoids. He flew to Houston last weekend for further exams and continued with treatment that apparently did not work.”

I don’t know what an anal fissure is and I hope I never do. But, honestly, couldn’t they call it a muscle pull? Or announce that he’s having surgery on his leg or something? Anything but this! From now on Kaz Matsui will have this to live with in baseball stadiums all over the country. For his sake, I hope his bum feels better soon and that we never again have to hear about his anus.

Earlier today, St. Louis signed Kyle Lohse to a one year deal for $4.25 million. I have some mixed feelings on this one. On one hand, I guess if he puts up his 2007 NL numbers (split between Cincinnati and Philadelphia) he’s a reliable number four starter who gives you 200 IP, an ERA around 4.50 with a 2/1 K/BB ratio. That’s not horrible and at $4.25 million, that’s a lot more palatable than the now seemingly over-the-top deal that Seattle gave to Carlos Silva.

On the other hand I wonder what the Cardinals are thinking bringing this guy in for a year in which they really don’t have a good team. What are they going to be in 2008? They don’t have any top notch starting pitchers, their offense is very questionable after Albert Pujols (whose arm could fall off any day now) and Troy Glaus (who’s had a myriad of injuries over the past several years) and their bullpen is decent although you never know what you’re going to get from Jason Isringhausen these days. Here’s the best case scenario for St. Louis this year: Lohse, Adam Wainwright, and Braden Looper hold the rotation together until Mark Mulder, Matt Clement and Chris Carpenter all get healthy and return to their peak performance levels. That would give them a rotation of Carpenter, Mulder, Clement, Lohse and Wainwright. If all are performing at the top of their game, that’s pretty good and it allows them to move Looper, Anthony Reyes and Joel Pineiro to the bullpen. Realistically, I don’t see that happening. Carpenter is recovering from the second major arm injury of his career; Mulder hasn’t pitched effectively since 2005; and Clement is viewed as damaged goods after his horrific 3-year run in Boston.

Meanwhile, from Lohse’s perspective, this could work out for him as he’ll make a good salary and not have very high expectations from the team. If he turns in a strong season he could yet find that multiyear deal at the $12+ million per year that he was seeking this off-season.

In the end, I predict that all these things will average out and the Lohse signing will have made some sense for the Cardinals, but what will he have added to their season? Two wins? Three at the most? We’ll have to wait and see how their season plays out, but they still don’t have the look of a contender and will most likely have to pay for their tickets like the rest of us in order to be at a playoff game come October.

Yankees v. Rays: Round 1

I know I’m a few days late on this one, but here are my two takeaway points on the Yankees/Rays dust-up this past week:

1. 1. Everyone did the right thing.

2. 2. This is going to make the matchups in the regular season very interesting.

Yes, the Yankees were upset when Tampa Bay minor leaguer Elliot Johnson plowed through the wrist of their young catcher, Francisco Cervelli, causing a fracture and resulting in surgery and rehab. Was it a dirty play? Should Johnson have held up and conceded the plate to Cervelli? That’s a matter of opinion. I fall into the camp that says “if you’re wearing a uniform, you’d better be playing hard” so it was OK in my book.

So, the Yankees complained about the hard-nosed play because their guy got hurt. Fine. But baseball is all about “The Unwritten Rules” and rule number one is: settle all problems on the field. (Actually, I have no idea what rule number one is – they’re unwritten - but it sounds authoritative doesn’t it?) All the quotes in the papers won’t make Cervelli’s wrist heal nor will they provide the Yankees’ response to Tampa Bay’s hard style of play. The only answer was for one of the Yankees to show the Rays that the play was not appreciated and would not be accepted and forgotten.

As expected, Shelley Duncan stepped forward and provided the Yankees answer to Tampa Bay. Wait, Shelley Duncan? Where was Jeter? How about ARod? Jorge Posada? No, those are the guys who have been letting this kind of play slide for years under the Joe Torre regime. There’s no way one of those guys would have retaliated. It took the young, boisterous, gregarious Shelley Duncan (a guy who isn’t yet assured of a roster spot) to take it upon himself and shoulder the load on this one. Loudly and clearly he stated to the Rays (and all of MLB for that matter) that the Yankees are not to be treated disrespectfully. One hard slide into the right thigh of Akinori Iwamura and a statement was made: don’t f*ck with us. One hard slide and he made a lot of enemies in the Tampa dugout. One hard slide and he earned a huge amount of respect from his teammates.

And so the brawl – if you can call it that – began. Jonny Gomes roared in from right field and shoved Duncan in the back and all the players hauled themselves onto the diamond from their dugouts, bullpens and clubhouse massage tables (I’m looking in your direction Mr. Giambi). Yelling. Finger pointing. A lot of hullabaloo. And then some more quotes in the papers. But this is not over. This is just Round 1. These two teams will meet 19 times in the regular season so there’s plenty of time for some more retaliation.

The thing of it is, everyone did what they are supposed to be doing out there: play hard and watch your teammate’s back. This is why I love this stuff. I don’t want to see anyone get hurt, but injuries happen and when they happen because of good, hard play, I can’t complain too much. The two teams have another Grapefruit matchup this Saturday and then play their first real game on April 4^th. This should be fun to watch!

1.       The Yankees big three.  Will Joba Chamberlain, Phil Hughes, and Ian Kennedy make Brian Cashman look like a genius for holding onto them?  Or will they perform as most rookie pitchers do? Prediction: It will be a roller coaster year for these three pitchers which will translate to a roller coaster year for the Yankees who will miss the playoffs for the first time in 13 years.  But, in 2009 and beyond, at least two of these players will be the core of a very strong, very young and very inexpensive rotation.

2.       2.  Will the Red Sox continue to be the team to beat?  Can their rotation perform at peak level and give the team what it had in 2007?  Can the bullpen maintain its consistency?  Prediction: Schilling won’t be the only injury/disappointment from the Boston pitching staff.  Daisuke Matsuzaka will improve his peripherals over his rookie year numbers.  Manny Ramirez will have a bounce back season (it’s a contract year after all) and perform at the All Star level we’ve seen for the past decade.  With all of this, they will win the AL East and contend for another title because the farm system is so deep.

3.       3.  Will Johan Santana live up to the hype and bring the Mets a title?  Omar Minaya pinned his job and the 2008 season on the lefthander and it remains to be seen if it will pay off.  Prediction: Santana will dominate in the National League with 18-22 wins, an ERA below 3 and over 225 strikeouts.  Add this to the potent lineup that they have assembled and the Mets will win the NL East and make their first World Series appearance since 2000. I think they can overcome the early injuries and still win the division.  It’s all about peaking at the right time and September is that time.

4.       4.  After their spending sprees (in money and prospects) will the Mariners and Reds have enough to compete for playoff spots? It will be interesting to see if Erik Bedard, Carlos Silva and/or Francisco Cordero will be major difference-makers for their new teams.  Prediction: I think both Bedard and Cordero have strong seasons but their new teams are just a tick below the true contenders in their divisions.

5.       5.  If they get off to a slow start will the Twins throw in the towel and go into full-on rebuilding mode? They’ve already lost Torii Hunter to free agency and Johan Santana in the blockbuster trade to the Mets.  Will Bill Smith go all Billy Beane on us if the Twins are out of it in late June?  Prediction: I expect that the Twins will be an also-ran in the extremely tough AL Central and when the trade deadline chatter heats up, he’ll have one of the hottest commodities available in Joe Nathan.  In the offseason, he may have been able to get one top flight prospect and one or two lesser talents.  In the heat of a pennant race he might be able to hold some contending team over a barrel and get a couple of stud prospects and then some to add to the Twins future.  How could he say no to this when the chances of re-signing Nathan are slim and none?

That’s just the tip of the iceberg.  I’m anticipating an exciting season and lots of other things have jumped to mind.  For now, these are my 5 most intriguing areas but that could change really quickly.  I hope some people will post their thoughts on these topics and share their ideas on what is sticking out to them at this point.

So, here I sit on a Friday night with nothing to do.  A snow storm is bearing down on New England making me hate Winter even more than ever.  What’s this? A Spring Training baseball game on TV (NESN)?! Red Sox v. Twins?! I almost cry a quick little tear of joy.

After 4 innings of watching the game I have two quick observations and then pretty much lose interest:

1. Boof Bonser really did lose a lot of weight!  He’s no longer the David Wells impersonator he was last season.  Way to go Boof!

2. Spring Training baseball on TV sucks.

I get it. Winning is the ultimate goal. Winning is what counts. So, George Steinbrenner has handed the reins over to his sons Hank and Hal who are now in charge of bringing titles to the Bronx. OK, great. There’s just one problem: neither of them has ever run a Major League Baseball team. Do you know who has? Brian Cashman.

Cashman is doing all the things that Theo Epstein and the Red Sox have been doing over the past several years (aside from that little “winning World Series championships” detail) and trying to build a strong organization from the minor leagues up. This is the chic thing to do these days. Why? Because it works. Red Sox. Marlins. Angels. White Sox. All of these teams had strong cores of home-grown talent augmented with some store-bought players. Now Cashman is trying to let the mega contracts of Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Bobby Abreu et al run out while the youngsters get their feet wet and get ready to lead the team on a run at some more titles.

Hank and Hal need to look at all of this and do the one thing their father was always unable to do: step aside. Let Cashman set this team up for a run at titles in ‘09, ‘10, ‘11 and beyond. 2008 is probably not their year anyway, for several reasons. Let’s count ‘em:

1. The AL East is tougher than ever.

2. Big money tied up in aging/deteriorating veterans as noted above.

3. Young guard not yet ready to step up full time and carry the team (i.e. those Innings Pitched limits are going to handcuff Joe Girardi throughout the season)

4. Lack of proven depth (injuries will hit and who will fill those vacancies?)

Then again, maybe the Sox and Blue Jays get devastated by injuries and don’t have the seasons that are being predicted. Maybe Giambi, Andy Pettitte, Hideki Matsui, Mussina, Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera all find the fountain of youth and perform like it’s 1999. Maybe Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy and Joba Chamberlain are really that good and dominate AL lineups so much that they’re nowhere near their IP limits come October. And who knows, maybe the injury bug doesn’t bite (Joba, it’s a figure of speech, put down the bug spray). If all of these things fall into place, maybe this IS the year for another title run in the Bronx. Come on now, let’s face it, these things all happening are about as likely as ol’ George keeping his mouth shut for an entire season.

So, Hank and Hal, if you’re listening: let Cash do his thing, sink or swim. Give him a preemptive Mulligan for 2008 (all while hoping for the best!) and start judging him in April of ‘09. At that point, you’ll have a shiny new stadium to show off (with so many luxury boxes that money will literally be spilling out the windows and into the Steinbrenner slush fund) and the core of a potential dynasty in the making ready to take over from the former “Bronx Fantasy All Stars”.