Adrian Gonzalez traded to Red Sox

Jason over at IIATMS does a nice job of breaking down the Adrian Gonzalez to Boston trade.  He evenly addresses the positive aspects of adding Gonzalez to the already potent Red Sox roster while raising the question of the health of Gonzalez’s shoulder after his recent labrum surgery.  I agree that, on its own, this deal makes plenty of sense for the Sox even with the risk factors pointed out.  Clearly the Sox are adding one of the best all-around plaers in MLB to their team which immeidatly makes them better.  The question I keep asking is whether the cost (in both prospects and the extension to which they’ll need to sign him) worth the upgrade of Gonzalez over Adrian Beltre?

Essentially, they’re replacing one with the other and shifting Kevin Youkilis back to 3B, right?  Obviously Beltre is the inferior player with one big question (does he only rise to the occasion when his next contract is on the line?) and is the older of the two Adrians (29 in 2011 for Gonzalez v. 32 for Beltre).  But, looking solely at 2010 numbers, they’re not that far apart.  Gonzalez posted an OPS+ of 152 while Beltre posted a 141, outstanding seasons for both.  If you look prior to 2010 it’s a whole different story: Gonzalez has posted an OPS+ over 125 in each of the past five seasons while Beltre has only had an OPS+ over 125 twice (2004 and 2010).  Defensively, they’re both very good, as is Youkilis, so let’s call this a wash (mostly because I have absolutely no business trying to determine defensive value and don’t have enough faith in defensive metrics to start throwing numbers around).

Having looked closer at the numbers it’s apparent that Gonzalez is worth the big money the Sox are going to pay him and is clearly more valuable than Beltre.  I still think the question of their relative value is legitimate when you include the likely three or four player package Boston is sending to San Diego.  However, I can’t disagree with the decision being made by Theo Epstein and the Red Sox front office.  A player such as Gonzalez is rare and you have to expect to pay a steep price in order to acquire that player.  And a six, seven or eight year deal for a player of Gonzalez’s age and history of performance may be the safer bet than giving a four year contract to a 32 year old player with Belre’s past ups and downs on the field.  Especially if you have the financial resources of the Boston Red Sox.

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