Could the Red Sox really flop in 2011?
After last night’s 16-5 drubbing at the hands of Tampa Bay, the Red Sox stand at 2 wins, 8 losses and are already 4.5 games behind the AL East leading Baltimore Orioles. As a Yankee fan, it’s been fun watching the Sox stumble out of the gate and listen to the media freak out about their early ineptitude. It would be a lot of fun for me if this team with the second highest payroll in MLB was to only win between 82 and 90 games. I would thoroughly enjoy listening to the local and national media analyze the team and point out all of the flaws that contribute to them playing .500 ball all season long (even though these are the same people who were predicting that they’d win 97 games and their third World Series). Good times would be had by me hearing my Red Sox fan friends submit their annual “this team sucks, when do the Patriots start?” diatribe in late July instead of September. Man, this would all be fantastic.
But it’s not very likely.
Today is April 12th. This is still the same team that was expected to outlast all others just two weeks ago. As I just pointed out, they’re 4.5 games out of first place. If they were 4.5 out of first on August 15th, would we be counting them out? No way.
Do they have problems? Sure.
The starting pitching was supposed to be a major strength with Jon Lester continuing his ascension to Ace status, John Lackey and Josh Becket both due for rebounds, Clay Buchholz primed to break out and push the older guys aside to become pitcher number 1B to Lester’s 1A and Daisuke Matsuzaka there to be the best number 5 starter in all of baseball. So far, Beckett has been pretty good, Lester has been OK, Buchholz has been up and down and Lackey and Matsuzaka have been pretty bad. But as I write this they’ve each started 2 games. That means, assuming good health, each will start around 30 more times this season.
This is still the same batting lineup that was going to lead the league in runs scored with as dominant a 1 through 5 as there is in the game today. Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez were the big time free agent additions who were going to lead the hit parade. So far Crawford has done little as he and the rest of the team have combined to rank 12th in the AL in extra base hits and 9th in OPS. Seriously, with talented players like Gonzalez, Crawford, Kevin Youkilis, and Dustin Pedroia still in their primes, it’s only a matter of time until they start pulling themselves up near the tops of those rankings.
Lastly, the bullpen had been fortified with a blend of veteran and up-and-coming arms that would keep teams shut down after one of those aforementioned starting pitching stars needed to hand the ball off early. They were now well prepared for the potential (and, some say, inevitable) implosion of Jonathan Papelbon since Bobby Jenks was brought in to be his safety net and Daniel Bard was another year closer to stardom. So far the group, overall, has been OK with a few rough outings from Bard, Tim Wakefield and the already jettisoned Dennys Reyes. But the collective group’s performance should not have raised any red flags.
When will (not “can”) they turn it around? Soon.
They’re too talented a team to continue to play this poorly. Eventually the bats will get in sync and the runs will come in bunches. The starting pitching will settle in to be one of the better overall units in baseball and the bullpen, which will undergo some minor tweaks (as all bullpens do in April and May), should also come together to provide stability late in games.
If you’re a Red Sox fan, don’t panic. Sure, you should be frustrated and anxious about the team’s lackluster start. But don’t reserve your spot on the edge of the Tobin Bridge just yet. I have a strong suspicion that the Sox will be at or near the top of the standings by late May and your world will be back to normal.
